基于不同分辨率和参数化方案的新疆区域数值模式性能初步评估     

杜娟  李曼  于晓晶  辛渝 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,(3):57-65

基于中尺度数值模式WRF,选取新疆两次强降水过程,设计3个试验方案,其中试验1为控制试验,试验2提高分辨率,试验3提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案,初步评估不同分辨率和参数化方案对新疆区域2m温度、10m风速、降水预报的影响。结果表明:(1)提高分辨率对2m温度、10m风速模拟精度均有提高,2m温度预报精度提高约0.5℃,降低了日间温度模拟冷偏差;10m风速预报精度提高约0.5m/s,降低了风速模拟正偏差;但提高分辨率后,模式出现虚假降水预报的情况。(2)提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案后,2m温度模拟误差略有减小,模拟偏差减小约0.2℃;10m风速模拟误差增大约0.5m/s,模拟偏差增大超过0.5m/s;对降水落区、量级的模拟精度显著提高,减小了降水中心的模拟强度,对虚假降水预报有一定修正。  相似文献   

玉树隆宝2014年冬季冻土积雪对陆气通量关键参数的影响分析     

张海宏  姜海梅  周秉荣  祁栋林 《气象》2019,45(11):1550-1559

利用玉树隆宝湿地的观测资料,分析了未冻结、冻结和冻结有积雪覆盖三种情况下动量通量和感热通量的日变化情况,计算了三种情况下动量总体输送系数、感热总体输送系数、动力学粗糙度和热力学粗糙度,分析了附加阻尼和粗糙度雷诺数的关系,并将三种附加阻尼的参数化方案进行了比较,结果表明:冻结状态下动量通量和感热通量的日变化幅度最大,冻结有积雪覆盖时,动量通量和感热通量的日变化幅度最小。动量总体输送系数C_D和感热总体输送系数C_H的值在冻结时最大,冻结有积雪覆盖时最小,动力学粗糙度和热力学粗糙度在冻结状况下最小,冻结有积雪覆盖时最大。未冻结、冻结和冻结有积雪覆盖状态下,三种附加阻尼kB~(-1)参数化方案中,幂函数型方案较为合适。  相似文献   

基于WRF模式的风电场短期风速集成预报方法研究     

叶小岭  支兴亮  邓华 《气象》2019,45(1):88-98

风能始源于大气的运动,具有很大的随机性和间歇性。风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确性具有重要的意义。对于复杂地形条件下,风速的预报一直是各国研究的难点和重点。为了提高风电场短期风速预报的准确性,本研究采用多种边界层参数化方案来集成预报风速,将各单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速及相应的实测风速数据,应用随机森林算法建立集成预报模型,对风电场的短期风速进行集成预报研究。试验结果表明,采用集成预报风速方法,预报的风速误差相比于单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速误差明显减小,对研究区域的风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的模拟效果,能够有效提高风速预报的准确率。  相似文献   

Geophysical flows under location uncertainty,Part II Quasi-geostrophy and efficient ensemble spreading     

V. Resseguier  E. Mémin  B. Chapron 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2017,111(3):177-208

Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. In this paper, simplified geophysical dynamics are derived from a Boussinesq model under location uncertainty. Invoking usual scaling approximations and a moderate influence of the subgrid terms, stochastic formulations are obtained for the stratified Quasi-Geostrophy and the Surface Quasi-Geostrophy models. Based on numerical simulations, benefits of the proposed stochastic formalism are demonstrated. A single realization of models under location uncertainty can restore small-scale structures. An ensemble of realizations further helps to assess model error prediction and outperforms perturbed deterministic models by one order of magnitude. Such a high uncertainty quantification skill is of primary interests for assimilation ensemble methods. MATLAB^® code examples are available online.  相似文献   

Inverse modelling using PS‐InSAR data for improved land subsidence simulation in Las Vegas Valley,Nevada          下载免费PDF全文

Meijing Zhang  Thomas J. Burbey 《水文研究》2016,30(24):4494-4516

Las Vegas Valley has had a long history of groundwater development and subsequent surface deformation. InSAR interferograms have revealed detailed and complex spatial patterns of subsidence in the Las Vegas Valley area that do not coincide with major pumping regions. This research represents the first effort to use high spatial and temporal resolution subsidence observations from InSAR and hydraulic head data to inversely calibrate transmissivities (T), elastic and inelastic skeletal storage coefficients (S_ke and S_kv) of the developed‐zone aquifer and conductance (CR) of the basin‐fill faults for the entire Las Vegas basin. The results indicate that the subsidence observations from InSAR are extremely beneficial for accurately quantifying hydraulic parameters, and the model calibration results are far more accurate than when using only groundwater levels as observations, and just a limited number of subsidence observations. The discrepancy between distributions of pumping and greatest levels of subsidence is found to be attributed to spatial variations in clay thickness. The Eglington fault separates thicker interbeds to the northwest from thinner interbeds to the southeast and the fault may act as a groundwater‐flow barrier and/or subsidence boundary, although the influence of the groundwater barrier to this area is found to be insignificant. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于土壤植被不同参数化方法的流域蒸散发模拟     

邵薇薇  徐翔宇  杨大文 《水文》2011,31(5):6-14

植被和土壤是水循环中的重要载体,模拟流域水循环时植被和土壤的参数化也显得尤为重要。通过对比流域蒸散发模拟中分布式模型和集总式概念模型的土壤植被参数化方法,计算了潘家口水库流域不同时间尺度上的流域蒸散发,分析了不同时间尺度下流域蒸散发的影响因素。通过分析得出:(1)分布式水文模型中的植被参数化方法包括对植被时空分布与变化的描述,以及与之相关的土壤-植被-大气中水分和能量的传输过程的描述。(2)从GBHM模型与流域水热耦合平衡模型的对比分析可知,在流域尺度上,年实际蒸散发与潜在蒸散发之间呈互补的高度非线性关系;但在山坡和小时时间尺度上,实际蒸散发与潜在蒸散发之间呈正比关系,并可近似为线性正比关系。(3)基于流域水热耦合平衡模型在不同时间尺度的参数化分析可知,考虑植被土壤水分和植被覆盖度能改善对流域蒸散发的年际和季节变化的模拟精度;土壤水分和植被的影响随着时间尺度变小表现得越来越显著。  相似文献   

积云模式下三维闪电分形结构的数值模拟   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

郭凤霞  王昊亮  孙京  吴鑫  梁梦雪 《高原气象》2015,34(2):534-545

为了提高积云模式对雷暴云内电过程的模拟能力,将Mansell提出的放电参数化方案在起始击穿阈值和闪电通道感应电荷的分配过程上进行改进,耦合了已有的三维强风暴动力—电耦合模式中。对STEPS(Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study)试验中一次雷暴个例以及对中纬度地区理想雷暴个例的模拟表明,引入了新放电参数化方案的模式模拟出闪电在发展特性和几何结构上和观测结果有较好的一致性。模拟结果还表明:闪电的类型与极性取决于背景电荷结构以及闪电的起始位置,只有底部存在正电荷堆时才会产生负地闪,且负地闪的起始点均具有较高的负电势。闪电通道上感应电荷的沉降会改变通道附近水成物粒子上携带的电荷,这对雷暴云内复杂电荷结构的形成有重要作用。经统计,模拟的地闪和云闪通道的分形维数平均值分别为1.47和1.69。对起始击穿阈值的敏感性试验表明,随着起始击穿阈值的增大,首次闪电时间会向后推迟,当采用逃逸击穿时首次闪电产生的时间最早;闪电数量随起始击穿阈值的增大而减少;当使用固定击穿阈值(100,150和200 k V)时得到的云地闪比均小于使用逃逸击穿时得到的云地闪比,使用逃逸击穿时得到的云地闪比与观测结果最为接近。  相似文献   

THE LIMITATION OF CLOUD-BASE MASS FLUX IN CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION AND ITS APPLICATION IN A HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL     

徐道生  陈子通  钟水新  温焰军  谢东东 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):11-22

A large area of unrealized precipitation is produced with the standard convective parameterization scheme in a high-resolution model, while subgrid-scale convection that cannot be explicitly resolved is omitted without convective parameterization. A modified version of the convection scheme with limited mass flux at cloud base is introduced into a south-China regional high-resolution model to alleviate these problems. A strong convection case and a weak convection case are selected to analyze the influence of limited cloud-base mass flux on precipitation forecast. The sensitivity of different limitation on mass flux at cloud base is also discussed. It is found that using instability energy closure for Simplified Arakawa- Schubert Scheme will produce better precipitation forecast than the primary closure based on quasi-equilibrium assumption. The influence of the convection scheme is dependent on the upper limit of mass flux at cloud base. The total rain amount is not so sensitive to the limitation of mass flux in the strong convection case as in the weak one. From the comparison of two different methods for limiting the cloud-base mass flux, it is found that shutting down the cumulus parameterization scheme completely when the cloud-base mass flux exceeds a given limitation is more suitable for the forecast of precipitation.  相似文献   

Impacts of Two Ice Parameterization Schemes on the Cloud Microphysical Processes and Precipitation of a Severe Storm in Northern China          下载免费PDF全文

YANG Hui-Ling  XIAO Hui  GUO Chun-Wei 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(5)

A severe storm that occurred over Beijing in northern China on 23 June 2011 was simulated with two different ice crystal parameterization schemes(the DeMott scheme and Meyers scheme) by using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Compared with the DeMott scheme, the simulation results with the Meyers scheme have the following characteristics:(1) Updrafts are stronger and more numerous;(2) The cloud is better organized and contains a greater peak of ice-phase hydrometeor mixing ratios;(3) Cloud water and hail mixing ratios increase while graupel mixing ratios decrease;(4) The surface precipitation is initially greater. However, at the end of the simulation, less precipitation is produced. In short, the differences between the two schemes are not obvious, but the De Mott scheme has a relatively more reasonable result.  相似文献   

A New Typhoon Bogus Data Assimilation and its Sampling Method: A Case Study          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Shu-Dong  LIU Juan-Juan  WANG Bin 《大气和海洋科学快报》2011,4(5):276-280

In this study,the authors introduce a new bogus data assimilation method based on the dimension-reduced projection 4-DVar,which can resolve the cost function directly in low-dimensional space.The authors also try a new method to improve the quality of samples,which are the base of dimension-reduced space projection bogus data assimilation (DRP-BDA).By running a number of numerical weather models with different model parameterization combinations on the typhoon Sinlaku,the authors obtained two groups of samples with different spreads and similarities.After DRP-BDA,the results show that,compared with the control runs,the simulated typhoon center pressure can be deepened by more than 20 hPa to 30 hPa and that the intensity can last as long as 60 hours.The mean track error is improved after DRP-BDA,and the structure of the typhoon is also improved.The wind near the typhoon center is enhanced dramatically,while the warm core is moderate.  相似文献